69传媒

鈥淵ou want to build subdivisions?鈥� says Costner, playing a wealthy Paradise Valley rancher in the hit 鈥淵ellowstone鈥� TV show. 鈥淢ove to Dallas. I won鈥檛 have 鈥榚m here.鈥�

But the rich out-of-state developer, played by Danny Huston, has his answer holstered and at the ready, in this conversational duel over the future of the Treasure State.聽

鈥淚t鈥檚 called progress, John,鈥� Huston says. 鈥淧rogress doesn鈥檛 need your permission.鈥澛�

This is all scripted, of course, a snippet of the dialogue that has made 鈥淵ellowstone鈥� one of the country鈥檚 most-watched TV shows since it debuted in June 2018. But there are shades or reality here.

Much has changed, both on-screen and off, in the six years since that first episode of 鈥淵ellowstone鈥� aired.聽

Costner quit the show, and his character was (spoiler alert) killed off in the debut episode of the second part of season 5. The fictional developer, Dan Jenkins, also is dead, having been mercilessly slain at the end of season two by those opposed to his vision of progress, though Jenkins kept promoting that vision until his last breath.聽

鈥淚 have every right to be here,鈥� Jenkins said with his dying words. 鈥淚 have every right. I have a right. This is America.鈥澛�

Since 鈥淵ellowstone鈥� first aired, the forces of growth and development haven鈥檛 been contained to the screen. They have also changed the real Montana in major ways.聽

Between 2018 and 2022, U.S. Census data shows that nearly 50,000 people exercised their own right to move to Montana 鈥� drawn, in part, by what some observers conclude is 鈥淵ellowstone鈥� itself.

As builders and developers have scrambled to meet all these newcomers鈥� demand for housing, they鈥檝e had some success, increasing the number of housing units added annually.聽

But Census data suggests that progress has stalled, as the number of housing permits issued statewide has over the past few years.聽

And a new forecast of population and housing demand suggests the daunting task of meeting the state鈥檚 housing needs will only get more difficult in the coming years.聽

That forecast comes courtesy of , a Vancouver, British Columbia-based firm that analyzes real-estate trends for public and private planners.

It predicts some 75,000 new arrivals 鈥� enough to populate an additional Missoula-sized city 鈥� will try to squeeze into a housing market that鈥檚 already bursting at the seams by the end of 2030.

In a state that鈥檚 already the in the entire country, a lot is riding on what happens next, including how quickly and how much new housing is built under the Big Sky through the rest of the decade.聽

Meeting the need will take a herculean effort, if it鈥檚 possible at all.聽

Aterio predicts the state will need to add more than 65,000 housing units than it had in 2020 by the decade鈥檚 end 鈥� and that鈥檚 just to maintain the existing imbalance between supply and demand.聽

鈥淚n the situation we're in,鈥� said Andy Shirtliff, executive of the Montana Building Industry Association and a Helena city , 鈥渋t needs to be all hands on deck to be able to fix this housing crisis.鈥澛�

鈥楾he supply dropped鈥�

Shirtliff has spent his life bouncing around Montana among the cities of Butte, Kalispell, Missoula, Billings and Helena.聽

鈥淚 grew up in Montana,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 was born here, raised here, and I can remember going to places and saying, 鈥極h, I remember when it used to look like this. I remember when nobody knew about it.鈥欌�澛�

But that undiscovered quality changed slowly, and then all at once.聽

After 鈥淵ellowstone鈥� debuted and then the pandemic hit, retirees, remote workers and other newcomers flooded into the state, 鈥済obbling up houses鈥� and 鈥渆ating up all of the inventory,鈥� Shirtliff said.聽

鈥淭he supply dropped, and the demand went way up, along with the prices,鈥� he said.聽

And developers responded. While housing production in Montana started to grow about 15 years ago, it sharply increased during the pandemic.

Back in 2009, permits for just 1,771 new housing units were filed in the state, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis . In 2020, that number reached almost 4,600. The next year, permits for 6,419 housing units were issued across Montana.聽

But experts say a variety of headwinds 鈥� including high interest rates, workforce shortages, property tax increases and declining availability of buildable land 鈥� have started to send the homebuilding trajectory in the wrong direction.聽

Last year, the number of permitted units dipped to 4,668.聽

And the slowdown has continued into this year. Through September, permits for just 3,767 units of housing had been issued statewide.聽

鈥楢lready behind鈥�

The reasons builders have struggled to meet the Treasure State鈥檚 housing demand are many, experts say.聽

But one of the first ones Shirtliff points to is the housing crisis itself.

As the need for new housing increased in the state鈥檚 fast-growing cities, higher prices pushed out longtime residents. And those displaced people, Shirtliff said, were disproportionately those who worked locally, in those communities, including in the building trades.

鈥淭hat put a strain on our workforce,鈥� he said. 鈥淎nd so, you know, trying to find people, trying to keep people, trying to train people 鈥� that adds into the time and the cost of the house.鈥澛�

Add in high interest rates, increasing property taxes, inflation, supply-chain problems and fights over water rights, and the job of keeping up 鈥� much less catching up 鈥� has gotten even harder.聽

Aterio鈥檚 data includes precise predictions for how much more housing will be needed in every Montana zip code based on expected population growth and historical housing patterns.聽

And while the areas that top the list aren鈥檛 surprising 鈥� Bozeman, Kalispell, Billings, Missoula and Helena 鈥� some of the numbers are eye-popping, like the 6,712 housing units needed to keep up with predicted demand this decade in Bozeman鈥檚 59718 zip code alone or the nearly 8,000 housing units needed in Flathead 69传媒.聽

Blake Maynard, an executive board member of the Flathead Building Association, believes more could be done to grow the housing workforce and to boost production. But he鈥檚 skeptical that proposed new policies or laws are going to lead to an explosion in new housing that will keep pace with the 鈥渟taggering鈥� number of units that are needed.聽

Maynard, who has been in the industry for 30 years, said the obstacles to doing so are many, including a lack of buildable land, onerous regulations and a labor shortage.聽

He said his members are trying to find ways to 鈥渢o decrease costs without sacrificing quality,鈥� but that even alternatives like building with pre-made panels requires skilled laborers who are hard to come by.聽

When asked how optimistic he is that Flathead 69传媒 can produce enough homes to keep up with population growth, Maynard said it鈥檚 complicated.

鈥淲e鈥檙e already behind,鈥� he said. 鈥淚f demand is there, if we can solve a few other issues, we can definitely support the growth. It鈥檚 just at what pace and rate it comes.鈥�

Aterio predicts the pace will be fast and furious. Flathead 69传媒 will have 17,000 more people in 2030 than it had in 2020, according to the company鈥檚 forecast.聽

鈥楬ow to address those needs鈥�

Shirtliff said the scale of the challenge in places like the Flathead emphasize the need for a collaborative approach to solve the housing crisis.聽

鈥淚t needs to be a partnership between the city, the county and the state and the private sector on what the needs are, how to address those needs and the reason why we have particular types of zoning, the reason why we have permitting or why annexation is the way it is,鈥� Shirtliff said.

In mid-2022, Gov. Greg Gianforte launched the Montana Housing Task Force to do exactly that: bring people together and hash out a response to the crisis.

Danny Tenenbaum, a former state lawmaker and a current member of the taskforce, said he believes the suite of broad that emerged from the group will help incentivize the construction of more housing in every community in Montana that needs more homes.

Exactly how much housing will be needed statewide, however, is difficult to pinpoint in the Aterio data.聽

That鈥檚 because Arterio鈥檚 2030 prediction doesn鈥檛 just add units in zip codes that are expected to grow but also subtracts units in those that are expected to decline in population.聽

When shrinking zip codes are removed from the data, Aterio data forecasts that Montana will need 66,000 more housing units by 2030 in its many growing areas than it had in 2020.

It鈥檚 those areas 鈥渨here existing supply isn鈥檛 meeting demand鈥� that the state housing taskforce is focused, Tenenbaum said.

Some of the taskforce鈥檚 recommendations were implemented in the Montana Legislature鈥檚 last session.聽

鈥淭he 2023 MT Land Use and Planning Act is the big one,鈥� Tenenbaum said. 鈥淚t requires local governments to set annual numerical targets for new housing starts and then update their zoning maps and streamline permitting to actually meet those targets. They have until 2026 to comply. Some have gotten it done early. It applies to all municipalities with a population greater than 5,000, which includes many towns in more rural parts of the state.鈥�

Obstacles to affordability

Missoula is one of the cities that has already set such a target.聽

In a recently released draft of a , the city called for building between 1,100 and 1,500 homes every year to keep up with expected population growth.聽

That鈥檚 more than double what was built last year, when only 448 new homes were permitted for construction. It鈥檚 also a significant drop from 2021, when 1,338 housing units were permitted.

Eran Pehan, director of Missoula鈥檚 office of Community Development, Planning and Innovation, believes the city can build enough housing to keep up with population growth. Her office estimates Missoula will need at least 22,000 new homes by 2045 to accommodate an estimated population growth of 37,000 more people in that same timeframe.

鈥淲hile there are huge drivers in home construction that local government cannot control, like interest rates, labor and the cost of supplies, having the right land use policy and development codes in place can help to encourage development even when these barriers exist,鈥� Pehan said.

She said the new Land Use Plan, if adopted by the city council, will allow builders to construct more types of housing in all neighborhoods in Missoula. More than 44% of Missoula鈥檚 land area is zoned exclusively for single-family homes, and the new plan would drastically change that to allow duplexes and other types of housing in more areas.

Pehan said the plan will encourage more homes and more home types, with an emphasis on adding smaller units across the city.聽

But Dave Edgell, a retired builder in Missoula who founded and ran a construction company for many years, has a hard time believing such changes will be enough for the city to double its production of homes, as rising costs make it harder for developers to make affordable housing projects pencil out.

鈥淟and prices and interest rates make a big difference,鈥� Edgell said. 鈥淲ages are a big factor in people being able to afford the rents you have to charge to break even.鈥�

He said it can take up to three months or longer to obtain a building permit from the city, depending on the size of a project.

Edgell acknowledges that 鈥渁llowing more density will help,鈥� but he鈥檚 pessimistic that such a new growth policy will be enough to overcome the daunting obstacles to affordability.聽

鈥淓veryone running for local and national office talks about making housing affordable, but so far I haven't seen any real solutions,鈥� Edgell said.聽

鈥楧ifferent product鈥� 聽

Jacob Kuntz thinks he might have a solution.聽

Since becoming of Helena Area Habitat for Humanity, Kuntz has been working to implement a radically dense form of housing , at least for a state that draws people seeking the kind of wide-open lifestyle depicted on 鈥淵ellowstone.鈥澛�

The setting for Kuntz鈥檚 experiment is a 250-acre parcel of Superfund in East Helena, a municipality that has welcomed the possibility that it will in size by decade鈥檚 end.聽

There, Kuntz and the Habitat team are planning to 1,700 housing units into a mixed-income development of apartments, duplexes, townhomes and single-family houses.

It鈥檚 an ambitious plan, and it remains to be seen if Kuntz鈥檚 organization can pull off such a massive project after historically only building one or two houses a year.聽

But while that project still faces approvals and hurdles, Kuntz is dreaming much bigger.聽

He sees the East Helena development as a pilot for a 鈥渄ifferent product鈥� that could be replicated statewide, transforming how housing is built in Montana.聽

鈥淲e're not interested in a one-off,鈥� Kuntz said.聽

He knows it will be tough, in part because the status quo has been so profitable for builders.

鈥淚'm not seeing motivation in Montana's building industry to build anything but apartments or the single-family home,鈥� Kuntz said. 鈥淎nd that's because the single family homes at half-a-million dollars are selling all day, every day in the state.鈥澛犅�

But that model, he believes, is not sustainable, due to high infrastructure costs incurred by local governments as well as high housing costs that could make Montana too expensive for working people to afford.聽

It鈥檚 also going to take something that he acknowledged is extremely hard to come by: big pieces of undeveloped land that are accessible to Montana鈥檚 rapidly growing cities.聽

The sprawling Yellowstone Dutton Ranch would work. Except, of course, that it doesn鈥檛 really exist.