Jim Kubiak is in his seventh season of analyzing the play of Buffalo Bills quarterbacks for The Buffalo 69传媒. Kubiak is the all-time leading passer at Navy, has played in the NFL, NFL Europe and the Arena Football League and has been a coach and executive in the AFL. He spent eight years as the radio analyst for the University at Buffalo and runs the Western New York Quarterback Academy to help develop the next generation of quarterbacks. He is the former head coach at Hilbert.
Quarterbacks are evaluated each quarter using a 鈥淒oing Your Job鈥 grading system for every play that takes into account the quarterback鈥檚 responsibilities and outcome. The accountability system rewards a quarterback with a plus for a play in which he does what he is supposed to do, a minus for not doing what he is supposed to do. A quarterback can earn a plus-plus for an extraordinary play and a minus-minus for a play that hurts the team.
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鈥淐hampionship DNA鈥 is a term reserved for when personnel executives want to differentiate good players from great ones. When we hear the phrase, we might define it as a conglomerate of traits setting apart high achievers from those who fall short, especially in moments of pressure.
Athletes are not predestined for championship achievement because of their molecular makeup, although athleticism plays a role. Rather, the greats achieve success through a combination of factors that, when rightly applied, attain the desired outcome. These attributes include mental toughness, relentless work ethic, clutch performance, competitiveness, consistency, leadership, teamwork, adaptability and emotional intelligence.
However, all of these traits can be developed and created through practice and dedication.聽
If we were measuring championship DNA during Sunday's game between the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills, the score should be enough to demonstrate the superior organization, team or quarterback in the moment. But all too often, sports fans hold onto the past and try to equate what a team was to what they are in this moment. That is a mistake. Each contest is its own new journey with new challenges and obstacles to overcome.
On this particular expedition in November, the Bills had more championship DNA, and they found ways to beat the previously undefeated Chiefs. Allen spearheaded the charge.
FIRST QUARTER
Play selection: 14 plays (nine passes, five runs)
Allen: 6 for 9 passing, 74 yards; one carries for 2 yards.
Performance grade: 100%
Score: Bills, 6-0.
The Bills won the toss and deferred, and on the Chiefs' first series, Buffalo intercepted an errant pass to give Allen an opportunity to score first with the ball on their own 35-yard line.
Allen鈥檚 performance in this first quarter was flawless. Within the grading system, his grade on each play achieved a positive mark for doing his job or his responsibility within the context of what he was accountable for. The grading system isn鈥檛 based on sensational plays, how fast he runs or whether his passes were caught. It is solely based on how well he performs his job responsibilities.
Allen completed two key passes on the opening drive on third down that led to the Bills鈥 first score.
1. Third-and-7: Josh Allen to Amari Cooper gives the Bills momentum
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady used double- and triple-counts to cause the defense to show the coverage they were playing. Allen initially looked like he intended to snap the ball on the first count. Then he started another count and put Khalil Shakir in motion. This caused the Chiefs defense to declare their defensive intentions as the defender, Chamarri Conner, went inside with Shakir. This confirmed for Allen that the Chiefs were in man-to-man on his left side, which allowed him to make this decisive and accurate decision to throw to Amari Cooper, who has been a great midseason addition.
This completion gave the Bills鈥 offense momentum, and three plays later, Allen completed another third down, this time to Curtis Samuel.
2. Third-and-8: Josh Allen to Curtis Samuel, with run after the catch
Here, knowing that the Chiefs鈥 defense runs a lot of combination coverages, Brady used Shakir in a short motion from the outside to the inside to disrupt the Chiefs' player count. Shakir was lined up as the No. 1 receiver, the most outside receiver 鈥 but as he motions inside, he becomes the No. 2 receiver, making Dawson Knox the new No. 1 receiver. To cap off another great concept design by Brady, Curtis Samuel, who started as the most inside receiver, became the No. 1 receiver in the concept.
This busted the defensive principles of the Chiefs as Nazeeh Johnson held off Knox and then had to react to Samuel. Johnson couldn鈥檛 cover both, as this Bills concept flooded the area. Allen watched Johnson, and the moment he engaged with Knox, Allen threw to Samuel. This was smart and efficient execution by Allen with a superbly designed play that attacked the weakness of the Chiefs鈥 defensive philosophy.
James Cook scored immediately after this 15-yard third-down completion, giving the Bills an early 6-0 lead.
It was a terrific start for Allen as he controlled the game with double- and sometimes triple-counts and finished the quarter 6 of 9 attempts with two throwaways.
Brady鈥檚 offensive to start the game relied on the distribution of the ball, rallying nine passes to five runs on 14 plays. Allen did his job without a mistake as the Bills seemed poised to in all three phases to out-execute the reigning Super Bowl champs.
SECOND QUARTER
Play selection: 25 plays (15 passes, 10 runs)
Allen: 10 for 15 passing, 93 yards, 0 touchdowns; three carries for 11 yards.
Performance grade: 88%
Score: Bills, 16-13.
The Chiefs scored on the first play of the second quarter to take the lead, 7-6.
Allen took over on the Bills鈥 third possession from their own 30-yard line. Three plays into this drive, Allen was faced with this Third-and-9.
3. Third-and-9: Beating the 4-weak blitz
This was excellent pass protection by the Bills, which gave Allen time in the pocket to get through his progression. On the play, he completed to Shakir for what would have been a first down. However, there was a penalty on the play for defensive holding, as Chiefs defensive tackle Felix Anudike-Uzomah dropped into underneath coverage and wrangled Mack Hollins to the ground as he was trying to cross the field on a drag route.
This play was a good example of the complexity the Chiefs鈥 defense, and what Brady and Allen must be prepared for. Here, the Chiefs split their coverage in half. To Allen鈥檚 right, the weak side of the formation the defense was man-to-man. The defense to Allen鈥檚 left was a matching zone with defensive tackle Anudike-Uzomah as an extra defender that Allen couldn鈥檛 account for before the snap.
The Chiefs brought 4-weak, as we can see. Here, center Connor McGovern blocked right along with running back Ty Johnson. The Bills were ready for the 4-weak possibility and were not fooled as Brady had the protection coordinated with this possibility in mind.
This was the fourth third-down conversion of the game for the Bills, and seven plays later, Cook hammered another rushing touchdown into the end zone to take the lead back, 13-7.
Following another Chiefs punt, Allen and the Bills鈥 offense had a spectacular opportunity from the Chiefs鈥 40-yard line, if not for a couple of mistakes.
First, Allen missed an easy throw into the flat to Samuel on second-and-9. The miss can be attributed to the physical performance of Allen, who has made a habit of drifting away and backwards while throwing these quick screens. That was the case here, resulting in his first minus of the game and leading to a third-and-9 on which he ultimately scrambled for 6 yards.
Next, coach Sean McDermott made an important decision to go for it on fourth-and-3 rather than attempt a 53-yard field goal. One has to wonder whether a lack of confidence in Tyler Bass or enormous confidence in Allen drove this decision. It was surely a combination of these two elements 鈥 and the fact that the Bills rank first in the NFL on fourth downs, converting 85.7% of the time.
4. Josh Allen's interception on聽fourth-and-3
At this critical juncture, Brady was clearly anticipating man-to-man coverage with all of the crossing routes. The Chiefs play a matching principled defense, meaning they match players when they come into their area as well as playing man-to-man on across the field at times. This is challenging for quarterbacks to decipher, and here the Chiefs were in man-to-man on the outside players and matched man inside.
As Knox ran his shallow across the formation, by rule the Chiefs let him go, knowing that the next underneath defender would be waiting for him. Conner was waiting for the shallow from Knox, who had man/zone rules, stopped his route to sit inside Conner. Allen, thinking man-to-man, expected Knox to continue. This miscommunication led to the interception. Allen鈥檚 mistake here led to a sizable return and ultimately a Chiefs go-ahead touchdown to make the score 14-13.
Credit the defense, the split-field structure and the Chiefs鈥 general ability to routinely execute a split-field scheme at such a high level. This would have been difficult for any quarterback, and it was why most of Allen鈥檚 success in this game came from same-side progressions and not across the field concepts. No one can see both sides of the field at the same time.
Credit Allen for rebounding before halftime and adding an important field goal on the next drive.
Allen and the offense took over with 2:44 remaining and two timeouts, and they were scheduled to receive the kickoff to begin the third quarter.
Allen completed five straight passes after the interception, including this 21-yard strike that put the Bills into field goal range on first-and-10.
5. Josh Allen to Curtis Samuel, 21 yards, versus Cover 2 defense
There are two points of high-level execution here. First, the Chiefs鈥 defense ran a fire-zone, meaning they blitzed a linebacker and dropped an end in an attempt to confuse the protection and create a sense of unnecessary urgency on the quarterback鈥檚 behalf. The defense only rushed four players and played Cover 2 zone in the secondary, but to Allen it felt that they may have rushed five as he couldn鈥檛 account for the defensive end to his left, Leo Chenal, dropping into coverage.
McGovern did an amazing job on this play. Watch as he initially took the player on his left shoulder, then communicated and passed him off, then immediately turned his head back to the right where the blitz was coming from. This was no accident; it was high-level execution by a supremely prepared offensive line.
The next point to make was the throw by Allen into the area behind the cornerback and to the outside of the safety, Jaden Hicks. This throw has to be caught between 18-22 yards. Had Allen not anticipated and thrown this ball as early as he did, this would have given Hicks the time he needed to make the play. Allen鈥檚 impeccable timing, accuracy and arm strength, combined with elite protection, made this possible.
Eight plays later, after milking every last second, Tyler Bass connected on a 33-yard field goal to give the Bills a 16-14 lead at the break.
At the end of the half, the Bills led the Chiefs in time of possession 16:24-13:26, and in rushing yards, 50-41. Both Allen and Patrick Mahomes threw an interception apiece. Allen completed 15 of 23 for 167 yards, and Mahomes completed 10 of 16 for 98 yards.
THIRD QUARTER
Play selection: 15 plays (nine passes, six runs)
Allen: 6 for 9 passing, 44 yards, 0 touchdowns; 2 carries for 2 yards.
Performance grade: 86%
Score: Bills, 16-13.
Both teams failed to score points in the third quarter, both punting twice in an affair that broke open in the fourth quarter.
Allen鈥檚 performance grade was 86% in the third quarter because he had two plays out of a total of 15 where he did not execute. On the first drive of the quarter, Allen and the offense were faced with a third-and-7.
6. Josh Allen misses on a third-and-7
Let鈥檚 boil this down to the essentials. Allen had a flood concept to his left with Shakir in the flat on a short out, and he had Samuel crossing the field and Cooper running a corner. Knox was Allen鈥檚 alert, meaning that if the safety moved too far over to the flooded side, Allen was supposed to sneak the throw back to the weak side to Knox.
The Chiefs blitzed to the strong side and rotated deep with their weak side. Allen was fooled 鈥 and understandably so, with this dynamic pressure. There are many things happening at the same time, including two blitzers to Allen鈥檚 strong side. A weakside linebacker, Chenal, dropped into coverage and carried Knox man-to-man. A weak safety, Hicks, rolls from weak to strong with over-the-top coverage. That is a lot, and Allen鈥檚 alert was taken away. Had he just stayed on the front side from low-to-high progression, he likely would have had an easy completion. This is a very-high-degree-of-difficulty of play, but one that Allen missed.
In the quarter, Allen completed 6 of 9 attempts as the Bills鈥 offense took their eighth offensive series into the fourth quarter. Despite a couple of missed opportunities, Allen鈥檚 leadership and poise were evident. He played with confidence and a sense of anticipation, reacting to pressures and defensive structures like the elite player that he is.
Allen perhaps doesn鈥檛 get enough credit for just how quickly he is able to process the defense. That is not to say that he doesn鈥檛 make a mistake or miss from time to time, but honestly, some of what he is able to see and react to would be nearly impossible for most players.
FOURTH QUARTER
Play selection: 16 plays (eight passes, eight runs)
Allen: 6 for 8 passing, 51 yards; 6 carries for 39 yards, 1 TD
Performance grade: 94%
Score: Bills, 30-21
The fourth quarter began with the Bills already on a drive that started at their own 17-yard line.
Allen threw this touchdown pass to give Buffalo a nine-point lead.
7. Josh Allen's TD pass to Curtis Samuel
This is an interesting play because of the pressure and the crossers. The Chiefs blitzed seven men聽and played Cover 0. Allen had one of his favorite mesh plays, on which he had two drags 鈥 one over the top of the other, to create problems for man-to-man defenders, with the tight end Knox hooking up over the ball.
Allen had an immediate alert to running back Ray Davis. Had the Chiefs forgotten about Davis鈥 free release, Allen would have thrown the touchdown to Davis. However, because Drue Tranquill peeled off his blitz to cover Davis, Allen鈥檚 eyes went immediately to his underneath crosser, Samuel. This type of mesh concept is common as the over-the-top mesh crosser forces the player defending the underneath crosser either over or underneath him, to get the short crosser more open. In this case, Hollins and Johnson actually collided, which was why Samuel was so open.
It is a lot to digest in the moment, but Allen鈥檚 ability to read and react, combined with his talent 鈥 he was fading backward and still got the ball down the field 鈥 was incredible at this rate of speed. The Chiefs blitzed seven players and still couldn鈥檛 get to him because of his processing acuity.
Brady deserves credit here, as well, because of how he dressed this familiar concept with motion. The motion used with Shakir all the way across the formation created a slight hesitation for Johnson. Shakir鈥檚 motion made Johnson lose a step in covering Samuel across. It was that hesitation that resulted in the collision. That was Brady鈥檚 window dressing.
The Chiefs responded with a touchdown to close the gap to 23-20 on their next series.
And this was the point at which Allen imposed his will.
Allen began a 12-play touchdown drive with about 7陆 minutes to play. On this drive, Allen completed 4 of 6 passes and ran the football himself four times. He scrambled for a first down on a second-and-10; he ran a sneak to pick up a first down; he had a designed quarterback run for a 3-yard gain; and finally he scrambled for 26 yards and the all-important score that made it a two-possession game with a nine-point lead.
8. Josh Allen's game-clinching 27-yard TD run vs. Chiefs
On the most important play of the game 鈥 a point at which the Bills could have kicked a field goal to take a five-point lead 鈥 they elected to turn Allen loose with this well designed play. Brady tried to set up a quick throw into the flat to Shakir, with Cooper as the second underneath crosser. The concept was to use Knox and Hollins as picks, just like the previous touchdown pass. Notice the Chiefs had 10 players at the line of scrimmage with a deep safety so far back he is not visible.
This type of specialty play comes with the Allen 鈥渂east mode鈥 option, and that is for him to run if the defense covers man-to-man. The moment he saw the defenders match into man, Allen took off.
Allen demonstrated astounding physical power on this play. His speed, tenacity, decisiveness and raw power could not be stopped.
CBS color analyst Tony Romo paused for a period of 32 second after this astonishing play by Allen. And this Allen play was miraculous. It was simply a Herculean effort in a moment when the game was on the line.
There would be no Chiefs comeback because of the nine-point lead, and Mahomes threw his second interception of the game to seal the Bills' victory in the final minutes.
CONCLUSION
Performance in any game comes down to execution. Each player on the field has to do his job. The offensive line needs to be physical enough to hold up, but also smart enough to account for various blitzes and schemes. Receivers need to be explosive and crisp with their routes, getting to the right depths and taking the correct angles, and make the receptions that are there for them to make. Running backs have more responsibility than just running the ball. They are protectors and they are receivers, and they play a vital role in how a dynamically organized offense operates.
The quarterback has the most difficult job of all, and I say that not with bias, but because the job itself has so many layers to it. The quarterback communicates, reads, reacts, runs, throws, manages and has to adjust to so many variables in real time. And he does so while defenseless in the pocket.
Allen thinks on every play about the formation, the protection, motions and shifts, the cadence, the defensive structure, blitzes, pass concepts in his progressions, the down and distance and so much more. I鈥檓 not sure that we realize how extraordinary a talent Allen is. His performances week in and out are so high-level that he makes it look routine, even though it isn鈥檛.
Championship DNA is not a molecular, biological reality, rather it is a recipe for success. The recipe begins with the turnover ratio and includes a balanced running/passing attack, great special teams, consistency in execution, an excellent coaching plan, belief, leadership and resiliency.
To say that ringless greats like Dan Marino, Jim Kelly and Archie Manning didn鈥檛 have championship DNA because they didn鈥檛 win a championship is just wrong. Championships at this elite level of competition are multifactorial; they are not achieved by any one player.
As the Bills head into their bye week with a commanding 9-2 record, they rank first in turnover margin as a team at plus-14. They rank first in points off of turnovers with 84. They have been even or positive in the turnover margin in 10 straight games. These types of statistics can only be achieved with wise and selfless quarterback play, with a defense that creates turnovers, and with an overall team dynamic that prioritizes winning over individual accomplishments.
Perhaps no other coach personified this recipe better than Bill Belichick. During his career with New England from 2000-23, Belichick鈥檚 turnover margin was an astounding plus-214. McDermott鈥檚 career turnover margin as a head coach from 2017-23 was plus-22, and is now plus-36.
The Bills' path to a championship runs through the team execution and emphasis on turnover margin, and no other player on the field controls this valve more than the quarterback. Allen is managing himself so much better under the direction of Brady. He is playing at such an elite level that championship-level success, which has been elusive for the Bills, is visible on the horizon.
Overall QB Performance Grade: 92%
27 of 40 passes (67%), 262 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
12 Rushes, 55 yards, 1 TD, 0 fumbles