NORFOLK, Va. — A slow-motion catastrophe is playing out in the coastal North Carolina village of Rodanthe, where 10 houses have fallen into the Atlantic since 2020. Three were lost since last week.
The most recent collapse was Tuesday afternoon, when the wooden pilings of a home nicknamed "Front Row Seats" buckled in the surf. The structure bumped against another house before it bobbed in the waves, prompting now familiar warnings about splintered wood and nail-riddled debris.
The destruction was decades in the making as beach erosion and climate change slowly edged the Atlantic closer to homes in the somewhat out-of-the way vacation spot. The threat is more insidious than a hurricane, while the possible solutions won't be easy or cheap, either in Rodanthe or other parts of the U.S.
This photo shows a house several hours before it collapsed into the ocean Tuesday in Rodanthe, N.C.
Barrier islands
Rodanthe is a village of about 200 people on the Outer Banks, a strip of narrow barrier islands that protrude into the Atlantic like a flexed arm.
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Barrier islands were never an ideal place for development, according to experts. They typically form as waves deposit sediment off the mainland. They move based on weather patterns and other ocean forces. Some even disappear.
David Hallac, superintendent of the Cape Hatteras National Seashore, along which Rodanthe is located, said it was more common in previous decades for homeowners to move their houses from the encroaching surf.
"Perhaps it was more well understood in the past that the barrier island was dynamic, that it was moving," Hallac said. "And if you built something on the beachfront it may not be there forever or it may need to be moved."
Rapid erosion
Rodanthe is one of many communities on Hatteras Island, which is about 50 miles long and has experienced beach erosion for decades.
The Cape Hatteras Lighthouse was 1,500 feet from the ocean when it was built in 1870, Hallac said. By 1919, the Atlantic was 300 feet away. The lighthouse was later moved to a more protected location.
The erosion has been measured to be as much as 10 to 15 feet a year or more in some places.
"And so every year, 10 to 15 feet of that white sandy beach is gone," Hallac said. "And then the dunes and then the back-dune area. And then all of a sudden, the foreshore, that area between low water and high water, is right up next to somebody's backyard. And then the erosion continues."
This photo shows debris from a collapsed house Tuesday in Rodanthe, N.C.
'Like a toothpick into wet sand'
Ocean waves eventually lap at the wooden pilings that hold up the beach houses. The supports could be 15 feet deep. But the surf slowly takes away the sand that is packed around them.
"It's like a toothpick in wet sand or even a beach umbrella," Hallac said. "The deeper you put it, the more likely it is to stand up straight and resist leaning over. But if you only put it down a few inches, it doesn't take much wind for that umbrella to start leaning. And it starts to tip over."
A single home collapse can shed debris up to fifteen miles along the coast, according to an August report from a group of federal, state and local officials who are studying threatened oceanfront structures in North Carolina. Collapses can injure beachgoers and lead to potential contamination from septic tanks, among other environmental concerns.
Compliance
Rules that govern coastal development in North Carolina have been in place since the 1970s, before many of the collapsed houses were built and when there was a lot more beach, said Noah Gillam, Dare 69´«Ã½'s planning director.
"At the time they were built, they were likely in compliance with all of the set-back requirements," Gillam said. "And they were set back, in many situations, hundreds of yards from the dune line, let alone the ocean."
This photo shows debris from a collapsed house Tuesday in Rodanthe, N.C.
Since then, the rate of erosion has sped up, swallowing swaths of sand. Storms also have become more frequent and more intense, pounding the shoreline of a community that is acutely exposed to the ocean.
'A national issue'
Meanwhile, officials and experts have been focused on solutions or at least ways to address the problem. The report on threatened oceanfront homes noted that 750 of nearly 8,800 oceanfront structures in North Carolina are considered at risk from erosion.
Among the possible solutions is hauling dredged sand to eroding beaches, something that is already being done in other communities on the Outer Banks and East Coast. But it could cost $40 million or more in Rodanthe, posing a major financial challenge for its small tax base, said Gillam, of Dare 69´«Ã½.
Other ideas include buying out threatened properties, moving or demolishing them, but those options are also very expensive.
U.S. Rep. Greg Murphy, a North Carolina Republican, recently introduced a bill in Congress that would make some money available. For example, the legislation would authorize federal flood insurance dollars to help demolish or relocate erosion-plagued homes before they collapse.
Braxton Davis, executive director of the North Carolina Coastal Federation, a nonprofit, said the problem isn't limited to Rodanthe or even to North Carolina. He pointed to erosion issues along California's coast, the Great Lakes and some of the nation's rivers.
"This is a national issue," Davis said, adding that sea levels are rising and "the situation is only going to become worse."
How forecasts of bad weather can drive up your grocery bill
How forecasts of bad weather can drive up your grocery bill
It's no secret that a warming world will drive food prices higher, a phenomenon increasingly known as "." What's less known, but a growing area of interest among economists and scientists alike, is the role individual extreme weather events — , — may have on what U.S. consumers pay at the supermarket.
At first glance, the answer might seem logical: A drought or flood that impacts agricultural production will, eventually, drive up prices. But it's not that simple, because what consumers pay for groceries isn't only reflective of crop yields or herd sizes, but the whole supply chain. As reports, that's where it gets interesting: Economists are beginning to see a growing trend that suggests weather forecasts play a part in sticker shock. Sometimes the mere prediction of an extreme event — like the record-breaking temperatures, hurricanes, and wildfires forecasters are — can prompt a spike in prices.Ìý
It isn't the forecast itself to blame, but concerns about what the weather to come might mean for the entire supply chain, as food manufacturers manage their risks and the expected future value of their goods, said Seungki Lee, an agricultural economist at Ohio State University.Ìý
"When it comes to the climate risk on food prices, people typically look at the production side. But over the last two years, we learned that extreme weather can raise food prices, [cause] transportation disruptions, as well as production disruptions," said Lee.
How much we pay for the food we buy is determined by retailers, who consider the producer's price, labor costs, and other factors. Any increases in what producers charge is typically passed on to consumers because grocery stores operate on thin profit margins. And if manufacturers expect to pay more for commodities like beef or specialty crops like avocados in the future, they may boost prices now to cover those anticipated increases.
"The whole discussion about the climate risks on the food supply chain is based on probabilities," Lee said. "It is possible that we do not see extreme temperatures this summer, or even later this year. We may realize there was no significant weather shock hitting the supply chain, but unfortunately that will not be the end of the story."
Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages are among the reasons food prices have climbed . Climate change may be contributing as well. found "" could push them up by as much as 3 percentage points per year worldwide in just over a decade and by about 2 percentage points in North America. Simultaneous disasters in major crop and cattle producing regions around the world — known as — are among the primary forces driving these costs. Crop shortages in these regions may also squeeze prices, which can create volatility in the global market and bump up consumer costs.
Historically, a single, localized heat wave or storm typically wouldn't disrupt the supply chain enough to prompt price hikes. But a warming world might be changing that dynamic as extreme weather events intensify and simultaneous occurrences of them become the norm. How much this adds to consumers' grocery bills will vary, and depends upon whether these climate-fueled disasters hit what Lee calls "supply chain chokepoints" like during harvest seasons.
"As the weather is getting more and more volatile because of climate change, we are seeing this issue more frequently," he said. "So what that means is the supply chain is getting more likely to be jeopardized by these types of risks that we have never seen before."
Lower water levels slow down barges on the Mississippi River
An ongoing from the fall of 2022 until February provides an excellent example of this. The Mississippi River basin, which covers states, is a linchpin of America's agricultural supply chain. It produces , and most of the country's livestock. Vessels navigating its of channels carry .Ìý
Transportation barriers created by low water, seen above, hampered the ability of crop-producing states in the to send commodities like corn and soybeans, primarily used for cattle feed, to livestock producers in the South. Thus emerged a as shipping and commodity prices , with economists .Ìý
suggests that the drought probably contributed to last year — and because droughts have a lingering impact on production even after they end, it may be fueling today.ÌýÂ
But although it seems clear that the drought contributed to higher prices, products, just how much remains to be gauged. One reason for that is a analyzing the relationship between this particular weather event and the consumer market. Another is it's often difficult to tease out which of several possible factors, including , influence specific examples of sticker shock.ÌýÂ
While droughts definitely prompt decreases in agricultural production, Metin Çakır, an economist at the University of Minnesota, says whether that is felt by consumers depends on myriad factors. "This would mean higher raw ingredient costs for foods sold in groceries, and part of those higher costs will be passed onto consumers via higher prices. However, will consumer prices actually increase? The answer depends on many other supply and demand factors that might be happening at the same time as the impact of the drought," said Çakır.Ìý
In a forthcoming analysis previewed by Grist, Çakır examined the relationship between an enduring drought in California, which produces , and costs of produce purchased at large grocery retailers nationwide. While the event raised consumer vegetable prices to a statistically significant degree, they didn't increase as much as Çakır expected.Ìý
This capricious consumer cost effect is due largely to the . Public safety nets like have played a large part in mitigating the impacts of adverse weather and bolstering the food supply chain against and other shocks. By ensuring farmers and producers don't bear the brunt of those losses, these programs reduce the costs passed on to consumers. Advanced agricultural technology, modern infrastructure, substantial storage, and efficient transport links also help ensure retail price stability.Ìý
A 2024 of the role climate change played on the U.S. wheat market from 1950 to 2018 found that although the impact of weather shocks on price variability has increased with the frequency of extreme weather, adaptive mechanisms, like a well-developed production and distribution infrastructure with sufficient storage capacity, have minimized the impact on consumers. Still, the paper warns that such systems may collapse when faced with "unprecedented levels of weather variability."Â
Last year was the , creating an onslaught of challenges for and producers nationwide. And this year is primed to be even more , with the transition from — an atmospheric phenomenon that warms ocean temperatures — to , its counterpart that cools them. This cyclical change in global weather patterns is another and source of supply chain pressures that economists and scientists are keeping an eye on.Ìý
They will be particularly focused on the Midwest and stretches of the Corn Belt, two regions prone to drought as an El Niño cycle gives way to a La Niña, according to Weston Anderson, an assistant research scientist at the University of Maryland and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Those growing regions for corn and soybeans are what he'll be watching closely as La Niña develops.Ìý
It's something Jennifer Ifft, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, is also thinking about. "If you have a very severe drought in the Corn Belt … that's going to be the biggest deal, because that's gonna raise the cost of production for cattle, hogs, poultry," said Ifft. "So that would probably have the largest inflationary impacts."
As of , U.S. beef herd inventory was at its lowest in 73 years, which multiple reports noted is due to the persisting . Americans, the are already spending more on groceries than last year, are poised to soon see at the supermarket. Food prices are also expected to rise another , according to the USDA's Economic Research Service.ÌýÂ
In a world enmeshed in extremes, our could be the next system teetering on the edge of collapse because of human-caused climate change. And costlier groceries linked to impending risk is the first of many warning signs that it is already splintering.
was produced by and reviewed and distributed by Stacker Media.
